The Front National's vote share - it's a bit more complicated....

Judging from news websites and the Today programme, the second lead story on the French presidential election is that Marine Le Pen's Front National scored its 'highest ever share of the vote', at 17.9%.  And in strict terms that it is true, if somewhat misleading.

A little digging in the 2002 results shows that there was a split in the FN vote between the old poujadiste's original FN, and the Mouvement National Républicain, which split from the FN in 1999.  Le Pen polled 16.86% in 2002, while the MRN polled a further 2.34%, for a combined 19.2%.  While the MRN is / was a tad more respectable (so to speak) than the FN, there cannot be any serious argument but that the two parties were fishing in the same pool.

More fun with French stats later, probably.

Those French types and their voting preferences

Yet another survey on voting intentions for next year's Presidential election, with some amusing distortions by age and gender:

So, ladies - could you resist the electoral appeal of this fellow?:

It is the one, the only Nicolas Hulot - a sort of French David Attenborough / late period John Craven - running as a Green candidate.  His distinctly municipal haircut must be the reason for 9% of French women supporting him where only 3% of the chaps do.

Marine Le Pen attracts 25% of male support to 17% female support.  Check google images to see her appeal or otherwise.  Overall, French women skew far more left than the men.  Elsewhere, a bravo to the sensible 50+ cohort - 2% of them opt for Trot postman Besancenot, whereas 4% of the overall population do.  All of these figure are based on Dominique Strauss-Kahn being the PS's candidate.

Rather more seriously, MLP would beat Sarko to the second round whoever is the Socialist party candidate.  Don't say I didn't warn you, because I did some time back.

It's not idle surfing or gawping at the box, it has 'high cultural value'

I am indebted to our French neighbours for coming up with yet another odd survey, with some even odder findings: on which activity has the greatest cultural value (in the opinion of the participant).

Top of the table is reading a book, at 29% (down six points in 14 years), followed by going to an exhibition / museum at 20%, reading a paper at 12%, going to a concert at 12% and my favourite - 8% for surfing the internet, followed by 7% for watching TV.  Regrettably, there is no breakdown by voting pattern, but under 35s skew to surfing and the 65+ cohort to watching TV.

Anyway, onwards.  Asked how many books they read - which includes graphic novels - 10% said none and 20% said 15+.  Reading skews, heavily, to greater levels of education, higher status work and living in Greater Paris.  In among the other questions, I rather like the fact of 18-24 year olds agreeing with the 65+ group that 'there are not as many talented authors as there once were'.  Presumably the youngsters remember their studies.... 

How to say 'hypocrite' in French

I am indebted to France Soir for commissioning a poll of Gallic types on their support or otherwise for UN military intervention in Libya and whether they would want France's military to join in.

Overall support for the first option stands at a not very high 36%, with the Left generally more supportive than the Right - 42% of Socialists to 38% of Gaullists.

Comparing support for UN action with support for French involvement throws up some fairly yawning chasms:

32% of women want 'something done', but only 24% support French involvement.  The gap for the overall Left (Socialists, Greens, Trots etc) is eight percentage points - 39% vs 31%.  The gap for Communists / Left party voters is the broadest - 14 percentage points between the 33% for UN intervention and 19% for French participation. 

The highest level of support for French involvement is the 35% for the Greens - not what I would have expected.  Maybe they are worried about the palm trees.  Credit, I suppose, is due to Frontistes - both options rated 30% support among them.   

Another 21/4 earthquake in prospect?

The 21st April does not have any great significance in these parts, but it certainly does on the other side of the Channel, as on that day in 2002 (Yes, I had to look it up) the French Socialist Party's candidate Lionel Jospin failed to make it past the first round and into the run-off, resulting in a Chirac / Le Pen decider.  Which Chirac won by a landslide, traumatising much of the French left as they turned out en masse to vote for him rather than see a Front National president.  Still, they should not have voted for various Trots and other no-hopers thinking it was cost free, should they?

Anyway, it is by no means certain that Sarkozy will run again and current polling suggests that it is only Sarkozy who could out poll Marine Le Pen in round one and thus face Dominique Strauss Kahn (likely PS candidate in 2012) in the knock out.  François Fillon would tie with MLP and both Jean-François Copé and Jean-Louis Borloo would be out of the hunt after the first stage.

Marine Le Pen is rather more subtle in her public statements than papa, but she is some way off being what I would deem a respectable voting option.